Doctoral thesis: The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic did not have a uniformly negative impact on the mental health of Estonian residents
The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic brought about extensive changes in people’s everyday lives. Research shows that despite this, people’s mental health in Estonia did not deteriorate on average as much as initially feared.
Karel Kulbin, a doctoral student at the School of Natural Sciences and Health at Tallinn University, focuses in his doctoral thesis on how perceived stress levels and depressive symptoms among Estonian residents changed during the first year of the pandemic and what role active leisure activities played in this. The longitudinal study followed the same individuals (530 Estonian residents) at multiple time points during the first year of the pandemic.
Not everyone experienced the crisis in the same way
The results show that, on average, the stress levels and depressive symptoms of the participants remained relatively stable during the first year of the pandemic, even though the spread of the virus and restrictions on normal activities changed significantly. This means that the changes in the environment caused by the crisis did not affect everyone’s mental health equally negatively.
Four main patterns of psychological coping were identified among participants:
33% of participants coped well during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic,
25% of participants showed an improvement in coping over time,
27% of participants experienced increased stress over the year,
15% of participants had persistently high stress levels.
What do the numbers show?
Many of the study participants (42%) experienced persistent adjustment difficulties during the first year of the pandemic and were therefore at higher risk of experiencing mental health problems associated with chronic stress. According to the analysis, worsening or persistently high stress levels strongly predicted later depressive symptoms.
However, the majority coped well with the crisis. “This result supports previous long-term research,” says Karel Kulbin. “People are able to adapt to long-term uncertainty and repeated stressors much better than they themselves expect,” explains the author of the thesis. However, he emphasises that successful adaptation is not universal. “Tracking average changes can mask large individual differences,” he says, adding an important nuance.
A possible protective factor against stress
Why did some people cope better with the pandemic than others? One possible protective factor may be active leisure.
Restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of the virus disrupted many people’s usual leisure activities. Giving up hobbies or physical activity was associated with a higher risk of depression. On the other hand, people who were able to continue active leisure activities, such as exercise, spending time in nature, or hobbies that did not require contact with other people, generally experienced better mental coping.
Thus, active leisure supports mental health even during major crises.
An opportunity to learn for the future
The research emphasises that the impact of crises on mental health cannot be assessed based on average indicators alone. It is important to understand how different people react to the same situations and which daily activities may support better adaptation.
Based on the research, it can be said that during future crises, it is important to support simple and accessible forms of leisure that encourage movement and are meaningful to people.
Doctoral thesis defence
Karel Kulbin is a doctoral student at the School of Natural Sciences and Health at Tallinn University. The title of his doctoral thesis is Insights Into Psychological Adjustment in Estonia During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perceived Stress, Depression Symptoms, and the Role of Active Leisure.
The public defence of the doctoral thesis will take place at 11:00 on 2 April 2026 in room M648 at Tallinn University.
The public can also follow the defence and ask the degree candidate questions via Zoom.
The doctoral thesis supervisors are Aleksander Pulver, Distinguished Professor at Tallinn University, and Kristjan Kask, Associate Professor at Tallinn University.
The opponents are Katrīna Volgemute, Associate Professor at Rīga Stradiņš University, and Kenn Konstabel, Associate Professor at the University of Tartu.
The doctoral thesis is available in the ETERA environment of the Tallinn University Academic Library.
